Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.005148 0.005437 0.005734 0.006063 0.006419 0.006792 0.007214
2024-12-15 0.004637 0.005063 0.005522 0.006057 0.006666 0.007339 0.008144
2024-12-22 0.004287 0.004785 0.005339 0.006006 0.006792 0.007695 0.008822
2024-12-29 0.003984 0.004521 0.005134 0.005889 0.006805 0.007890 0.009291
2025-01-05 0.003747 0.004312 0.004968 0.005795 0.006823 0.008073 0.009737
2025-01-12 0.003599 0.004195 0.004900 0.005807 0.006958 0.008396 0.010366
2025-01-19 0.003359 0.003952 0.004663 0.005590 0.006789 0.008315 0.010454
2025-01-26 0.003257 0.003872 0.004620 0.005613 0.006920 0.008622 0.011071
2025-02-02 0.003228 0.003879 0.004683 0.005769 0.007231 0.009179 0.012064
2025-02-09 0.003101 0.003756 0.004575 0.005695 0.007225 0.009302 0.012445
2025-02-16 0.003007 0.003671 0.004510 0.005673 0.007287 0.009518 0.012971
2025-02-23 0.002909 0.003576 0.004428 0.005623 0.007304 0.009667 0.013403
2025-03-02 0.002871 0.003559 0.004449 0.005717 0.007532 0.010138 0.014369
2025-03-09 0.002796 0.003491 0.004400 0.005710 0.007615 0.010400 0.015029
2025-03-16 0.002711 0.003407 0.004325 0.005663 0.007634 0.010565 0.015542
2025-03-23 0.002611 0.003298 0.004211 0.005554 0.007557 0.010575 0.015793
2025-03-30 0.002523 0.003205 0.004116 0.005468 0.007507 0.010623 0.016109
2025-04-06 0.002474 0.003161 0.004088 0.005479 0.007603 0.010905 0.016849
2025-04-13 0.002358 0.003022 0.003922 0.005279 0.007366 0.010638 0.016595
2025-04-20 0.002319 0.002989 0.003904 0.005299 0.007472 0.010934 0.017376
2025-04-27 0.002322 0.003013 0.003969 0.005444 0.007781 0.011582 0.018860
2025-05-04 0.002258 0.002943 0.003895 0.005375 0.007742 0.011640 0.019230
2025-05-11 0.002213 0.002897 0.003854 0.005355 0.007782 0.011833 0.019878